3 Misconceptions?

This article was written by an avid Unsportsmanlike reader as well as a long-time Steelers fan: Judd.

Enjoy!

There are many great sports writers working in the field today who challenge their readers with new ideas to make NFL fans look at the game in a different light. Unfortunately, sometimes a writer creates a piece which just leaves the reader scratching his head. Such is the case of the recent article by Michael Lombardi.

Found here. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/michael_lombardi/05/14/nfl.myths/index.html

In the article he looks at what he considers three misconceptions of NFL football announcers and attempts to show why the evidence runs contrary to popular belief. Pretty standard fair except in this case his three “myths” look to be far stronger than the evidence he puts against them. I’ll play Devil’s advocate.

Myth #1: Establishing the Run. Lombardi’s main point is that many successful teams start the game going pass heavy to establish a lead and then turn to the run in the second half to secure victory. Solid logic thus far. Unfortunately Michael also attempts to support this theory by using the 2007 Raiders and Vikings as example teams that prove establishing the run doesn’t make for a winning team. This is clearly flawed logic since neither of these teams could do anything last year other than run the ball. Neither has a proven quarterback under center and both struggled terribly in the passing game. Let’s get something straight. Establishing the run doesn’t mean “only running” it means using the run to set up the rest of the offense. In recent years Bill Cowher and Marty Shottenheimer are probably the most famous for using this approach and it gave their teams plenty of opportunities to win. At least so long as Shottenheimer avoided the playoffs and Cowher stayed away from AFC championship games. The reality of the situation is that an offense needs balance and it needs to keep the defense honest. Any team that gets too run heavy or too pass heavy will put up amazing stats but struggle to win the Super Bowl.

Myth #2: Shut-down corners are the key to good pass defense. While Lombardi’s evidence attacking Myth #1 was a bit twisted, his evidence here flies in the face of reason. His main point is that a strong pass rush is just as important as solid corners. A plausible theory until he falls back on bad evidence to support it. In this case he attacks Al Harris and Charles Woodson for their inability to cover the Giant receivers in last year's championship game. And this would be fine logic, if the defining plays for the Giants weren’t almost all made by the extremely tall and talented Plaxico Burress playing the game of his life. Woodson and Harris were usually in great position, but they simply could not out jump or out fight Plaxico for the ball. His argument also fails to account for the great corners of history like Deion Sanders or Rod Woodson who were such dynamic threats most quarterbacks would stop throwing in their direction. Finally it doesn’t even mention the many teams who might have superb defensive lines (i.e., Houston) but have difficulty stopping opponents passing due to below average coverage.

Myth 3: The turnover Battle is the key to football. And finally we get to a point in the article where the reader begins to wonder if Lombardi has momentarily lost all sense. His main point is that missed field goals should be counted as turnovers as they are crucial for field position. Um… Michael… we need to talk. By this logic any bad punt or kick off is a turnover. And even if that were so it would only emphasize how absolutely crucial turnovers are in big games. Plus this thinking leads to my award for the Worst Logic of 2008:

“The Giants entered the playoffs with a minus-9 ratio in turnover/takeaway. Making the playoffs would be impossible with such a ratio, let alone winning the Super Bowl. But the Giants' opponents missed eight field goals last year, and even though New York missed four of its own, taking account of that stat still reduced their overall total to a minus-5.”

This line is so contrary to recent history (i.e., what really, truly happened in 2007-08) that I’m almost struck mute. For starters the Giants were a below average team for half of last season, hence the horrendous turnover ratio. Fortunately, they improved drastically going into the playoffs and their defense played eight quarters of amazing football starting in the 4th quarter of the Dallas playoff game and ending with the 3rd quarter of the Super Bowl. The fact their opponents missed eight field goals throughout the season has absolutely nothing to do with their playoff run or their turnover ratio.

I can only assume Michael was watching different games than I was last year. For if 2007 taught me anything it was that being able to establish the run late in the season is enormous, having quality corners will give you a chance even against the best passing team and that a turnover can end not only a season but a career.

Myth’s Confirmed.