You must have a draft philosophy. Even if you don't like the draft. Somewhere, deep down inside, you have a draft philosophy.
Here's mine:
(1) Draft the best player available.
Here's mine:
(1) Draft the best player available.
If you don't want to draft the best player avaible, then trade down.
Sometimes teams will claim they "couldn't" trade down because they couldn't find a trade partner. This is a lie. There are always teams willing to trade, but the team in question just didn't like the trade offers. Teams tend to get greedy when they try to trade down (bad idea).
At the end of the day, you have to trade down if you don't want the best player available. Why? Because you must....
(2) Always think about value. Players cost money. The higher the pick, the more money. And some positions (e.g., QB, DT, DE) cost more than others. Never draft a player that you don't want to pay. And never draft a player that isn't worthy of the pick. Trade down.
A bad contract can cripple your team. For the love of all things holy, TRADE DOWN.
(3) Don't draft a player who (a) can't tackle, (b) has ningling health issues, and/or (c) was a back-up in college.
(3) Don't draft a player who (a) can't tackle, (b) has ningling health issues, and/or (c) was a back-up in college.
Concerning the latter, it has become a "fad" to draft guys who "translate" to positions they didn't play in college (e.g., OG to OT, QB to WR). An extension of this fad is drafting a guy who "didn't start" but has the potential to be a "back-up in the NFL." It is true that some guys are better suited to play a different position in the pros, but if you can't start in college...then you can't play in the NFL. Mel Kyper and Todd McShay have tried to make this idea sound plausible. Ignore this BS. The Dallas Cowboys got caught up in all the hoopla this year and ended up drafting Felix Jones (Running Back-Arkansas) in the first round. Felix Jones backed up Darren McFadden in Arkansas and Dallas is hopeful that he will back-up Marion Barber. Yep, drafting a back-up to be a back-up. In the first round of the draft. Nice.
(4) Ignore team victories in college, but take note of guys that won high school championships. College recruitment is lop-sided, meaning that a small number of teams hoard all the talent. So, it doesn't mean much to win in college (sorry college sports fans).
(4) Ignore team victories in college, but take note of guys that won high school championships. College recruitment is lop-sided, meaning that a small number of teams hoard all the talent. So, it doesn't mean much to win in college (sorry college sports fans).
But a truly great player can almost single-handedly deliver championships in high school. Or at least get the team close (runner-up, semi-finals). For example, Darren McFadden led his high school team to the state title game in Arkansas (they lost). He averaged a mind-boggling 9.9 yards/attempt that season. Forget about the idiotic guy who must have coached McFadden's team (how do you lose with a back averaging first downs?) and focus on the real issue: Darren McFadden destroyed his high school competition. Sometimes you see first round NFL picks who never made the playoffs in high school. Can that happen? Yes. Does it happen often? No.
"How to draft" step-by-step:
Imagine that your teams sucks and needs to rebuild (this is easy for an Oakland Raiders fan). How should you go about that?
"How to draft" step-by-step:
Imagine that your teams sucks and needs to rebuild (this is easy for an Oakland Raiders fan). How should you go about that?
An idea that I've touted for some time is what I loosely call the "basic draft order." The name isn't fancy. But it works.
Remember the rules I outlined in my philosophy above. That means you trade down if the best player available is not the type of player you want. I don't cover what to do in rounds 4 - 7, because the answer is simple: in those rounds you draft players that can make a roster. Most guys drafted in those rounds don't make NFL teams. You can also grab good kickers and Full backs in rounds 4 - 7. Sometimes a decent Offensive Guard can be found there too.
So, here goes:
Year 1:
1st round: Offensive Tackle
2nd round: Defensive End/Corner Back
3rd round: Quarter Back (3rd round QBs are cheap and, statistically, about as likely to "pan out" as round 1 and 2 guys. Plus, this is your QB that will basically serve as a tackle dummy until your ready for the real franchise guy. If he works, then great. If not, his mangled body will eventually serve as trade bait.)
Year 2:
1st round: DE/CB (whatever you didn't get last year)
2nd round: OT/OG (a bonus would be to find a guy that can play both; switch linemen are rare, but they give you lots of options when linemen get injured. Keep in mind: You need two solid tackles to win in the NFL.)
3rd round: Running Back (look for a between the tackles guy, a bruiser. You'll need someone to carry the load while you continue losing)
Year 3:
1st round: Defensive Tackle (good DTs are rare. Plus, you can't get them in later rounds. If you want one, then you have to get one in round one. They don't last long though...weight issues get most, hence the reason you draft year 3).
2nd round: Linebacker (Generally speaking, linebackers don't vary that much in talent. Either they have it or they don't. Grab a guy here to lead your defense).
3rd round: CB/Safety
Year 4:
1st round: QB (your franchise guy; your team is ready now)
2nd round: OT/OG (looking for another switch linemen...because you have to keep your skilled players healthy. That means your O-line must be rock solid. And have depth. When in doubt, draft O-line. Write that down)
3rd round: Tight End (draft franchise QBs and Tight Ends together. You can get a quality TE in the 3rd round..and at a good price. When you bring in QBs and TEs together than they develope a bond. That is good. Plus, TEs serve as security blankets for young QBs. Note: This should be a receiving TE, not a blocking TE. If he can do both, great. But he won't.)
Year 5:
1st round: Running Back (You are looking for a game-breaker. Why not draft a quality RB sooner than year 5? Keep in mind that running backs have a very short shelf life in the NFL. For example, Larry Johnson is getting ready to retire. That dude has only been in the NFL a few years. Also, you should now have a line for him to run behind...to stay healthy longer)
2nd round: DE/DT (yep, you need another one)
3rd round: CB (looking for a nickel back; i.e., undersized guy with good speed that can tackle in the open-field)
Year 6:
Begin the cycle again.
Common questions:
Remember the rules I outlined in my philosophy above. That means you trade down if the best player available is not the type of player you want. I don't cover what to do in rounds 4 - 7, because the answer is simple: in those rounds you draft players that can make a roster. Most guys drafted in those rounds don't make NFL teams. You can also grab good kickers and Full backs in rounds 4 - 7. Sometimes a decent Offensive Guard can be found there too.
So, here goes:
Year 1:
1st round: Offensive Tackle
2nd round: Defensive End/Corner Back
3rd round: Quarter Back (3rd round QBs are cheap and, statistically, about as likely to "pan out" as round 1 and 2 guys. Plus, this is your QB that will basically serve as a tackle dummy until your ready for the real franchise guy. If he works, then great. If not, his mangled body will eventually serve as trade bait.)
Year 2:
1st round: DE/CB (whatever you didn't get last year)
2nd round: OT/OG (a bonus would be to find a guy that can play both; switch linemen are rare, but they give you lots of options when linemen get injured. Keep in mind: You need two solid tackles to win in the NFL.)
3rd round: Running Back (look for a between the tackles guy, a bruiser. You'll need someone to carry the load while you continue losing)
Year 3:
1st round: Defensive Tackle (good DTs are rare. Plus, you can't get them in later rounds. If you want one, then you have to get one in round one. They don't last long though...weight issues get most, hence the reason you draft year 3).
2nd round: Linebacker (Generally speaking, linebackers don't vary that much in talent. Either they have it or they don't. Grab a guy here to lead your defense).
3rd round: CB/Safety
Year 4:
1st round: QB (your franchise guy; your team is ready now)
2nd round: OT/OG (looking for another switch linemen...because you have to keep your skilled players healthy. That means your O-line must be rock solid. And have depth. When in doubt, draft O-line. Write that down)
3rd round: Tight End (draft franchise QBs and Tight Ends together. You can get a quality TE in the 3rd round..and at a good price. When you bring in QBs and TEs together than they develope a bond. That is good. Plus, TEs serve as security blankets for young QBs. Note: This should be a receiving TE, not a blocking TE. If he can do both, great. But he won't.)
Year 5:
1st round: Running Back (You are looking for a game-breaker. Why not draft a quality RB sooner than year 5? Keep in mind that running backs have a very short shelf life in the NFL. For example, Larry Johnson is getting ready to retire. That dude has only been in the NFL a few years. Also, you should now have a line for him to run behind...to stay healthy longer)
2nd round: DE/DT (yep, you need another one)
3rd round: CB (looking for a nickel back; i.e., undersized guy with good speed that can tackle in the open-field)
Year 6:
Begin the cycle again.
Common questions:
Q1: Why don't you recommend drafting wide receivers?
A1: Draft a wide receiver? Seriously? WR almost never work out. And they usually take longer to develope than their initial contract. Which means you will have to resign your WR before you know whether they are a sure bust or not. Yeah, I don't recommend that. Get your wide receivers in free agency. Look to nab guys at their second or third contract. You'll at least have NFL tape on them (i.e., increase likelihood of getting a quality guy).
Note: The picture above is of Charles Rogers. Charles was drafted in the first round by the infamous Detroit Lions (they drafted a WR in the first round....three years in a row). Charles was heralded by draft buffs as a "sure fire" pro-bowler.
Update: Charles Rogers was an epic bust. This isn't an unusual story.
The only WR in recent history that was worth a pick: Larry Fitzgerald. Larry has better than 20-20 vision. And he can write with both hands. If you don't like Larry Fitzgerald then you can go to hell.
Q2: Why so much focus on the line?
A2: Name a championship team that didn't have a solid line.
Q3: You say draft the best player available...but then give a blow by blow account of specific positions to draft. That doesn't match up.
A3: That isn't a question, jerky. But I'll answer it anyway. This is a template for how you should draft if the players fall your way. They won't always fall your way, so you will trade down (and grab more picks). When you grab more picks, then you search for OG, pass rushing DEs, LBs, and RBs. So, trading down at key moments will enhance your build.
Q4: Name a team that follows a model even close to this?
A4: None. And that is why they fail. Just kidding. The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers consistently draft along these basic lines. I always say, "When in doubt, try to find out what Ozzie Newsome (of the Ravens) is doing." Ozzie is the best talent scount in the league. About half of his first round picks end up making the pro bowl. Ozzie Newsome is pictured below...sort of ironic that he played for the Browns (i.e., a team not known for handling the draft well)
2 comments:
kcoe (through O.D.M.) directed me here...interesting stuff.
Two key things that are missing in this grand plan: character and system. For the former, ask the Bengals how drafting talent has worked out for them. Chemistry is underrated as a component of championship teams. Look at what happened to the Giants when Tiki retired and Shockey got hurt. Two of their most talented and most poisonous guys go down, and they win the Super Bowl.
As for system, the draft picks have to match the coach's system, or vice versa. A Michael Vick or Reggie Bush type player may be the most talented player on the board and may even fill a position need for a team, but in the wrong offensive system they're wasted.
Another example of why system matters: the Colts. They run a very specific defensive system which puts an emphasis on speed over anything else. Therefore, year after year they spend most of their early picks on the offensive side of the ball (even though the offense doesn't ever seem to need much help), knowing they can pick up some undersized speed guys for the defense in later rounds. I'd argue that this system has worked pretty well for the Colts. I'm sure most Jags, Titans, and Texans fans would agree.
Good point. And I think a clarification is in order here:
When I say "draft the best player available" I don't mean draft the "best athlete." I mean, generally speaking, you should draft a player who is worthy of the spot. Sometimes that is the best athelete (i.e., the Raiders nabbing Run DMC at pick 4), but sometimes it is not (i.e., the Dolphins grabbing Jake Long at pick 1).
In other words, I don't support drafting by "need." The Texans, for example, picked up the 6th best OT in round one of the 2008 Draft. Clearly, the Texans need an OT. But the guy they grabbed wasn't even a third round grade. I can't understand that move. The Texans need to (a) trade up or (b) trade down. Picking that palyer at that spot is just a poor use of the draft.
Your other point is also well taken. I didn't think about fit with system. In fact, that has me deep in thought about how to integrate system with philosophy.
Initially, I want to say that your philosophy should trump your system. Or shouldn't factor into your decisions until you are out of a build stage. That is, system might impact players that the Patriots take (but not players that the Falcons take).
But that is just a gut reaction. Even now I am starting to disagree with what I wrote. Because I do believe that a coach should pick players they gell with...
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